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A return to bank profitability, renewed dividend payments, a stabilisation in lending and a resolution of the tracker issue will all help pave the way for an AIB share sale later this year but Noonan may have to lower his asking price to get the deal over the line.
With Halifax and Danske having already exited the Irish market, Belgian bank KBC is due to make an announcement about the future of its Irish operation on February 9.
Larry Broderick, general secretary of the Financial Services Union which represents many KBC workers, has said that there is "significant concern" among many KBC Ireland staff and has called on the company to clarify its intentions.
Mr Hughes believes that AIB may be able to make a dividend payment to the state from its 2016 earnings.
He pencilled in a 20pc dividend payout ratio for Bank of Ireland from its 2017 earnings.
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